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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

by Dr.Hamdi Boukamcha

Doing a weekly top-down technical scan and evaluation of pairs forward of every week is important to efficient, environment friendly and worthwhile buying and selling. It helps the dealer profit from their time and spend acceptable time on the suitable issues to do when the market is in session. What pairs to commerce primarily based on well-stipulated standards, what to search for in monitoring the market and what set-ups to greatest use are facilitated by correct planning and preparation which is enhanced by an intensive top-down technical evaluation completed forward of the buying and selling week, say, each Sunday.

One of many quotations I like on this regard is from Abraham Lincoln who mentioned: 

‘Give me six hours to cut down a tree and I’ll spend the primary 4 sharpening the axe.’

I’m beginning this thread as a result of I wish to share my weekly scan and evaluation with FF members and I hope others who do such weekly scan and evaluation primarily based on a top-down technical method will use this thread to share theirs with different members. Nonetheless, this thread just isn’t about any particular system and won’t be used to show merchants particular methods or methods. 

Posts on this thread ought to comprise substantial narratives that describe the market construction, order move context, key technical points and important worth actions from the views of the weekly, every day and 4-hourly time frames in that order. Then, acceptable charts for instance the narratives ought to be hooked up, a minimum of overlaying the weekly and every day time frames. If the 4-hourly time-frame helps carry out additional perception, or clarifies sure features of the narrative, that ought to be included within the attachment. 

Please, don’t simply publish charts with out narratives; actually, the narrative ought to come first after which illustrated by the charts. Nonetheless, in case your charts are nicely illustrated with out being difficult or complicated, the quantity of narrative will be decreased however the narrative ought to all the time come first.

Additionally, please don’t publish complicated, difficult or meaningless charts. The easier they’re the higher.

The highest-down technical evaluation ought to be completed forward of the week and posted newest throughout the London open every Monday. Any mid-week replace could comply with and any post-analysis report or replace throughout the week will be completed however not for the aim of show-off, ridicule or criticism. 

Contributors to the thread ought to respect different contributors and abide by FF code of ethics. Personally, I’ll endeavour to publish right here twice per week.

From time to time different gadgets like movies, quotations, maxims and rules related to top-down technical evaluation will be shared if they assist foster constant profutable buying and selling. 

Commerce secure and nicely.

KP

Want to include viewpoint from the month-to-month time-frame

I’m updating this publish to tell readers and contributors that efficient January 2017, I will probably be incorporating the point of view from the month-to-month time-frame the place it’s related to take action. The month-to-month time-frame offers an enormous context for the weekly technical outlook, significantly to get a broader outlook, potential targets and turning factors, helpful to swing and place merchants. It might not be essential to get the month-to-month viewpoint in all instances however when such a viewpoint is prone to make the evaluation stronger or make clear sure features of worth motion which might not be captured successfully on the weekly time-frame, the outlook from the month-to-month time-frame will probably be integrated.

Commerce secure and prosper.

 

AUDUSD Outlook

On the weekly time-frame, after a interval of sideways mode spanning six weeks, final week a bearish pin bar was fashioned which was a 3rd of such bearish pin bars in that sideways mode. The opposite three candlesticks within the sideways mode had been largely indecision bull candlestick. The principle trendline on the weekly timeframe is downwards and has not but been damaged since April 2013. In reality, the sideways mode of the final six weeks had been purely testing the trendline; the wick of final week’s bearish pin bar retested the trendline. Basically, the downtrend appears to be holding on the weekly timeframe.

Connected Picture (click on to enlarge)
Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

On the every day time-frame, the pair has been buying and selling in an ascending channel since Might 30, 2016. Worth motion and RSI readings indicated that the ascending channel plateaued on August 8, 2016 and the pair is now on a downward mode. That is in step with the weekly trendline. Two comparatively massive bearish candlesticks fashioned final week Thursday and Friday on the every day time-frame; final Fridays bearish candlestick examined the decrease trendline of the ascending channel however didn’t break it. Thus, though the course is strongly bearish, there may be want for worth to interrupt the ascending channel to the draw back. In any other case, worth could retrace upwards to retest the rejected resistance zone round 0.76946.

Connected Picture (click on to enlarge)
Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

On the 4-hourly time-frame, worth has moved strongly to the draw back into a powerful S/R zone. All of the technicals on the 4-hourly time-frame are pointing to the draw back however there may be want for worth to reject the S/R zone to the draw back and break the decrease trendline of the ascending channel seen on the every day time-frame.

Connected Picture (click on to enlarge)
Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

Moreover, on the 4-hourly time-frame, a mini trendline for the ascending channel will be seen to be unbroken since Might 2016. After testing the mini trendline on September 1, 2016 worth revisited it final week Friday. If worth efficiently breaks that mini trendline after which surges by way of the every day trendline beneath it, that ought to be a cue for an additional southward push to check the following speedy help round 0.73900 0.73750.

Connected Picture (click on to enlarge)
Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

I could also be unsuitable. Commerce secure and nicely.

Supply : KeenPips 

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